With the re-nomination of Governor Adams Aliyu Oshiomhole by the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) as its candidate and the emergence of Gen. Charles Ehigie Airhiavbere as the standard bearer of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) for the Edo State July 14, 2012 gubernatorial election, the die is cast.
Irrespective of the candidates other political parties may field in the election, the electoral battle would be clearly between the ACN and the PDP, and it is expected to generate interest and excitement for many reasons.
In retrospect, many people argue that the election would be a re-enactment of the 1983 Governorship election between then incumbent Governor Ambrose Foloronsho Ambrose Alli of the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) and Dr. Samuel Osaigbovo Ogbemudia of the defunct National Party of Nigeria (NPN) in which Ogbemudia was declared winner by the Federal Electoral Commission (FEDECO), the defunct electoral umpire headed by Justice Ovie Whiskey.
The PDP in picking Gen. Airhiavbere as its candidate, seem to agree with many who hold the view that the experience of the 1983 election has shown that Edo South with its large population would always prefer to vote for one of their own in an election.
This view which is generally bandied about in the State, is not supported by any logical or empirical reasoning.
First, it should be re-called that one of the reasons the military took over government in a coup that year was because elections were rigged and then Bendel State was one of the states were many believe that election was rigged.
Besides, 1983 and 2012 are different in time and space and therefore, events that have taken place in the State between then and now would either confirm or disprove the notion that the Binis would always support one of their own in an election on the basis of the candidate’s ethnic affinity.
Factors that will determine the outcome of the election
The July Governorship election would be determined by a number of factors which includes the popularity of the candidates and their parties, performance and voters ability to defend their votes.
In terms of popularity rating of the candidates and their political parties, the candidates of the ACN and PDP, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole and Gen. Charles Airhiavbere are the dominant candidates, though other political parties are yet to nominate candidates at the time of this analysis.
However, between the ACN and the PDP, Oshiomhole and his party from all indications, were on top of the ladder.
Indeed, the antecedents of the former Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) president in the Labour arena, have contributed in no small measure to his soaring rating, partly because he has further built on these antecedents to the surprise of those who at the beginning of his political career derided him by saying that presidency of NLC was not the same thing as being Governor of a state.
On the other hand, Gen. Charles Airhiavbere unlike Oshiomhole who has become a household name, has a big task of fashioning out ways of gaining popular ity. Though his political party, the PDP which once held the reins of power in the state controls power at the National level, the performances of these who wielded power on the platform of the party in the state in the past, have somewhat created difficulties for the retired General to navigate through.
As stated above, the performance of the candidates would determine to a large extent, how they would fare in the July 14, Governorship election. Here, Oshiomhole has advantage over Airhiavbere since he is the incumbent Governor who has had the opportunity to showcase his talent in governance, unlike Gen. Airhiavbere whose’s performance in the Army, is not open to public assessment.
No doubt, Governor Oshiomhole’s performance, judging from comments from members of the public and series of endorsement from different segments of the society and recently from the organized labour led by the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) have increased his approval rating, which no doubt, would translate to his victory at the polls.
Beside the loss of some of its key members to the rival ACN in the state, the cause of the PDP is not helped by the wrangling within the party arising from the fall-out of its gubernatorial primary election.
Some of the aspirants that lost out have vowed to work against the party at the polls. This is a warning to the party leadership to rise up and embark on quick fence-mending in the run up to the July election.
All said, the outcome of the election would depend largely on the vigilance of the electorate and their determination to ensure that their votes count. In other words, the electorate must be prepared to defend their votes to ensure that their preferred candidate is declared the winner of the election. It is only that way they would truly say they have elected a Governor of their choice.
