THE dateline is 14 July, 2012. The event is the Edo State governorship election. The prize is the coveted Edo State governorship seat. And the campaigns for the office have reached fever pitch, sometimes even with venomous intensity. The roads to this D-Day have been long, tortuous and undulating. The gladiators are the incumbent Governor Adams Oshiomhole of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Major-General Charles Airhiavbere (retd) of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Chief Solomon Edebiri of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), Roland Izevbuwa of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), Paul Orunmwese of the National Conscience Party (NCP), Frank Ukonga of the Social Democratic Mega Party (SDMP) and Andrew Igwemoh of the Labour Party (LP), all of who are the gubernatorial candidates of their respective political parties.
Indeed with a few days to the election, the candidates and their political parties have obviously been involved in last minute frenetic push for the votes of the electorate in the state. Analysts believe that even when the personalities involved in the electoral contest are seven, the real contenders are three, namely Oshiomhole, Airhiavbere and Edebiri. However, while acknowledging the person and accomplishments of Chief Edebiri, there has always been suggestions from across the political sphere that the governorship contest may be a two-horse race between Oshiomhole and Airhiavbere when it gets down to the wire, the finish line. Given the intensity, scope and sometimes bitter nature of the campaigns, there is also the proposition that the battle for who occupies the Edo State Government House on Osadebe Avenue, GRA, Benin City, from 12 November 2012, may be the fiercest since the creation of the state in 1991.
To some of these political commentators, issues that may ultimately determine the outcome of the polls include the pedigree of the candidates and their political parties, history or record of performance, vision, public perception of the candidates and their political parties and ethno-geographic politics.
Adams Oshiomhole and the ACN
Governor Adams Oshiomhole, the candidate of the ruling Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), who is seeking re-election for a second term of four years in office, and the ACN having been showing up as both the candidate and party to beat in the governorship election.
As things stand presently, the ACN appears to be in a pole position with two out of three senatorial seats, six out of nine House of Representatives seats and 19 out of 24 constituency seats in the state House of Assembly. But some other analysts argue that the present constitution of the House may not be a true representation of the reality on ground, as a number of the seats being held by the ACN were initially not products of election, but that of defections from the PDP prior to the 2011 State House of Assembly election. It is said that the profile of the ACN in Edo State is inextricably tied to that of Oshiomhole.
Those who make this submission contend that it was his inauguration as governor of the state in November 2008 following a protracted legal battle over the results the outcome of the April 2007 governorship poll and his eventual victory at the Court of Appeal, the terminal point of gubernatorial election petition at the time, that gave the ACN the political clout it now enjoys.
A saying common in informal circles in Edo State is that without Oshiomhole there will be no ACN in the state and without ACN there will always be Oshiomhole. It is an axiomatic expression that underlines the dominant influence of Oshiomhole as the driving force behind whatever success the party claims it has recorded in the state, and a presupposition that the success or failure of Oshiomhole translates into success or failure of the ACN.
As a former President of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), Oshiomhole’s eloquence and prowess in the art of persuasion and mobilisation are not in doubt. Some pundits opine that Oshiomhole has through a blitz of well orchestrated and manipulated run of activities created a somewhat saintly image for himself while demonising opponents or portraying them as enemies of the people. But Oshiomhole has insisted that his greatest credential is his record of performance in this his first term in office which, according to him, are there for all to see; and achievements which he has often said are “eye-mark,” meaning “what you see” and not earmark.
Major General Charles Airhiavbere (retd), PDP
Before Major General Charles Airhiavbere (retd) joined partisan politics shortly after he pulled out of the Nigerian Army in July 2011, not much was known of him in this game of number and interests. Airhiavbere is reputed to have worked assiduously to emerge the candidate of the PDP for the Edo gubernatorial election. To buttress his effort, Airhiavbere said that so far he is the only aspirant to have covered with the leadership of the PDP in the state the 192 political wards in the state in the bid to sensitise and mobilise the people for the PDP and his aspiration ahead of the election.
Some of his critics have observed that despite being the first to stake his claim to the Edo PDP governorship ticket, as well as also claiming pole position in the geographical mileage covered, Airhiavbere’s main political base was not immediately clear. But that situation does not appear to be the case now, for not a few persons have agreed that his own political base has crystallised, having won the fiercely contested governorship primary of the PDP which took place on 25 February 2012. Today, the ex- Director, Nigerian Army Accounts and Finance Corp, and a former Director, Nigerian Institute of Policy and Strategic Studies (NIPSS), Kuru, near Jos, carries himself with a swagger that suggests he is already home with victory.
Airhiavbere has also been credited with high level connections, given his status as an accountant and as a man who served the country for 37 years before retiring from the Nigerian Army. Airhiavbere’s admirers express the view that so far he has not betrayed any lack of capacity to deal with the challenges of seeking the elective office of a governor in a state like Edo. Airhiavbere’s political platform, the PDP was sent packing from the seat of power in the state in November 2008 when the Court of Appeal ousted Professor Oserheimen Osunbor and installed Oshiomhole as the duly elected governor of the state, a legal outcome which flowed from Oshiomhole’s challenge of the result of the April 2007 gubernatorial election in the state. The PDP was not just the ruling but the dominant political party in Edo state from 1999 to 2008.
Before now, the results of the National Assembly and state House of Assembly elections held in April 2011, showed the PDP as a party that appears to be in dire straits. In the elections under reference, the party won one out of the three senatorial seats in the state, got three out of the nine House of Representatives seat in the state, and secured victories in five out of 24 constituency seats in the state House of Assembly. Some analysts say that the statistics, which seemed grim at the time, make the PDP’s quest for the Edo governorship seat in 2012 a tall order.
The current leadership of the PDP with Chief Dan Orbih as the state chairman of the party and the party’s gubernatorial candidate have continued to insist that there is now a new PDP in Edo State, as the party has been repositioned and rebranded.
A number of political observers say that so far the PDP and Airhiavbere are doing well facing up to Oshiomhole and the ACN challenge but added that what may be the greatest challenge of the PDP in Edo state is the treachery and sabotage within its ranks. Persons who share this opinion say there are many so-called PDP members who merely put on the cloak of PDP to conceal their ACN identities. This category of PDP members are said to be eating from both sides of the political divide for their own selfish gains and may not easily give up their anti-party acts for the good of the party no matter the reconciliation efforts.
